The international newspapers are highlighting that if NO will win, a financial crisis will follow in Italy. On nov 14 the BTP/BUND spread has reached a new pick at 188 – after the one in June for the Brexit -prompted also by the effects of the election of Trump and by the doubts about the lenght of the expansive policy of the BCE. Generally in Europe there is a rising trend of spreads but by confronting, for example, the differences between Italy and Spain, we can see a difference of some points that can be attributed to an “Italian” risk perceived by the investors.
On the other side it has to be considered that because of the risk of political uncertanty linked to the referendum, the international financial giants have taken part in the electoral campaign for “yes” to the referendum and this means that also financial movements that precede the referendum can be partly seen as a political campaign.
I am not able to distinguish what is a political campaign aimed to influence the results of the referendum and what are the real conditions of the market. In any case I don’t see an Ital-Exit scenario also if the 5 stars movement will win next elections and, finally, our constitution doesn’t allow for referendums to change international treaties. For this reasons, all the people that are adding fuel to the fear of a possible Italexit effect of the referendum are just lieing.
Personally I think that the moment has come for Europe to go further in the process of becoming a real union. The alternative is a quick achievement of the breaking poin. Probably the new american president policy, that will be less multilateral and more bilateral, will force Europe to revise its policies in particular, the foreign and defence policy: I’m waiting the moment when the old eu countries finally will try to identify strategic common interests. Is it idealistic? Yes sure, if you think to the way we are dealing with immigrants and refugees, yes…it seems not possible. But what has been the creation of the European Community if not a great dream?